Political betrayal, Canada trade war: Why Michigan is a Senate race to watch

DETROIT — Michelle Taylor gasped and shook her head in disbelief.

Outside a church where she was waiting to hear Democrat Abdul El-Sayed speak on Sunday, the longtime Detroit resident watched an unimaginable party fracture in a race that could ultimately decide who controls power on Capitol Hill.

El-Sayed’s former opponent in the U.S. Senate primary, Haley Stevens, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers with just less than 48 hours to go before election day.

“It’s all about being bigger than your ego,” Taylor said shaking her head, looking at Stevens’ social media endorsement minutes after it was posted. “And for her to do that is really a slap in the face to the Democrats.”

Stevens was quickly rebuked by Michigan and national Democrats after the remarkable show of support for the candidate backed by President Donald Trump.

It’s unclear how Stevens’ endorsement may impact the outcome of the closely-watched contest, whose outcome could determine whether Democrats can rein in Trump’s unwieldy use of executive power for the remainder of his term.

Polling shows Democrats are favoured to take the House, where a net gain of three seats would give them a majority. The future of the Senate is less clear, where some polling shows a Democrat net gain of four seats is within reach.

The Michigan seat is crucial for Democrats to get a Senate majority. It’s also a race where Trump’s trade war with Canada has become a ballot box issue.

The economies of Michigan and Canada have long been integrated and Trump’s tariffs have had a significant impact on the state. The auto industry on both sides of the border has been struggling with the 25 per cent auto tariffs for vehicles finished in Canada — which Trump has threatened to increase to 50 per cent next year.

The Detroit Regional Chamber has repeatedly said the tariff battle causes economic pain on both sides of the border. Multiple polls have shown most Michiganders — no matter their political affiliation — disapprove of Trump’s tariff attack on Canada.

The president’s decision to hold up the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge has also been a high-profile issue in the campaign — along with the drop in Canadian visitors driven by Trump’s anti-Canada rhetoric.

The blowback over the trade war was bad enough that Rogers put some distance between himself and Trump. In a campaign ad released last month, Rogers is seen drinking a Labatt’s beer and telling voters “Canada is not our enemy.” El-Sayed has long said the trade war with Canada is nonsensical.

Both candidates have spent weeks releasing sharp attack ads criticizing the other.

Christopher Sands, director of Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Canadian Studies, said El-Sayed is facing an “othering” — where Rogers is trying to tie the Democrat to foreign parents and previous controversial comments.

El-Sayed has condemned Rogers for his corporate ties and legislative records, connecting the Republican to Trump’s unpopular policies, including his trade war with Canada.

Michigan, considered a battleground state, has historically seen Democrat support linked to unions. But Trump was able to win the state in 2024, making gains in unexpected areas like those with large Arab-American populations.

It’s unclear how the Republican attacks on El-Sayed’s religion will impact those areas of support.

Chris Vitale said he feels “cautious optimism” that Rogers is in a good place to win the race. The longtime Trump supporter hopes the Democrats’ eleventh-hour blowup will bring even more voters to the Republican ballot.

“A lot of the things over the last few days have only gone Mike’s way,” said Vitale, a council member for the City of St. Clair Shores in Michigan. “So maybe that optimism is even a little more increased.”

As a retired autoworker, Vitale sees value in some of the president’s tariffs. He’s more hesitant about the duties targeting of Canada.

Vitale said he wants to see a strong Canadian automobile industry but argues the Trump administration needs stronger trade policy around Mexico and China.

“(The Trump administration) should understand that Canada is different than all those other countries I named,” he said. “And it’s very frustrating because you want to get behind this guy but there’s that one little asterisk that it’s like, that’s not Canada.”

Despite trade tensions making Michigan Republicans more warry, Vitale said they still want to send someone “normal” to the Senate and Rogers “checks the boxes.”

Meanwhile in downtown Detroit, Kenneth Ware was preparing a get-out-the-vote effort for Democrats in Michigan. He said it’s important for people to come together to make sure the right person gets the job — and for him that’s El-Sayed.

There was a lot of noise among Democrats over the weekend but Ware said it’s like running a marathon. Now is the time to come out and participate to make sure the race is finished, he said.

“I do feel that we can take a stand now,” he said. “I believe our stand is stronger when we all come together than just being alone.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 2, 2026.

— With files from The Associated Press

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press