Fact File: No evidence for Trump claim Canada will ‘pay for all’ of Keystone pipeline

United States President Donald Trump claimed Sunday that Canada would pay for the entirety of a revived Keystone XL pipeline. While the project has yet to be revived, the Prairie Connector pipeline that would reuse Keystone XL infrastructure is jointly owned by two independent companies, one Canadian and one American, with no federal funding commitments as of yet. Experts on Canada’s natural resource sector say such funding seems unlikely.

THE CLAIM

During a media scrum in Dubuque, Iowa, Trump said trade negotiations with Canada would include the Keystone pipeline.

“They’re going to build the Keystone pipeline. They’re going to pay for it. They’re going to pay for all of it,” he said, adding that the U.S. would provide the route and Canada the financing.

Both Trump and the reporter appeared to be referring to the Keystone XL pipeline project, not the Keystone pipeline, which began operating in 2010.

Keystone XL would have seen crude oil sent from Western Canada to American refineries. But TC Energy cancelled Keystone XL in 2021, after then-U.S. president Joe Biden revoked its cross-border permit.

“They build it, they pay for ALL of it, and we give them the route,” reads an X post from an account that echoed Trump’s claim. The pipeline claim was shared multiple times on X, as well as on Facebook.

THE FACTS

While the Keystone XL pipeline project remains dormant, Canadian critical energy infrastructure company South Bow aims to partner with American crude oil transportation company Bridger Pipeline on a pipeline that reuses some Keystone XL infrastructure on the Canadian side of the border.

This Prairie Connector pipeline would extend from Hardisty, Alta., to the U.S. border, where it would connect to the Bridger Pipeline Expansion system planned to reach as far as Oklahoma.

Before the Keystone XL termination, the Alberta government said it had provided $1.5 billion in equity investment in 2020 and a $6-billion loan guarantee in 2021 to support the project, while the federal government did not provide funding.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has not responded to Trump’s claim about Keystone XL, though he said Sunday that overall trade negotiations have been constructive.

Carney had previously raised the prospect of reviving the pipeline with Trump about a year ago, with the aim of linking energy co-operation and supporting Canada’s steel and aluminum sectors.

Jean-Thomas Bernard, an economics professor at the University of Ottawa who specializes in natural resources economics, said he would be surprised if Trump were able to renew Keystone XL with only two years left in his term.

“Mr. Trump approved this project in his first time around, and nothing got off the ground,” Bernard said in an interview Tuesday.

He said opposition from some states and First Nations, competition with cheaper oil producers in the Middle East, and Canada’s interest in building oil pipelines to the West Coast to access the Pacific market are some of the obstacles a revived Keystone XL could face.

Bernard said Canada’s agreement to share with the United States toll revenues from the Gordie Howe Bridge, outside of a previously established agreement, was an example of a joint infrastructure project that became a “burden” to Canada.

Trump, who had called the toll terms unfair for the United States, made multiple false claims about Canada’s role in the project. He said Canada owned the entire bridge, built it with almost no American materials and that the United States would “get nothing” from the bridge.

“I hope that Canada learned a lesson out of this experiment and that we don’t put any money south of the border,” Bernard said.

Heather Exner-Pirot, director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said it’s unclear how the Prairie Connector pipeline will be funded since South Bow says it will not reach a final investment decision until next year.

“But there’s never been an indication it would need government money,” she said in an email Monday. “The fact they had a successful open season is strong indication of commercial viability and therefore ability to access private equity and debt.”

South Bow said its open season, which allowed shippers to bid on contracts, was successful and resulted in 20-year binding commitments.

According to a September report from the Globe and Mail, South Bow told investors it was looking into several ways to pay for the pipeline, including selling a stake to private equity fund managers, and executives said a federal tax break on investments in assets “strengthened the case” for the pipeline.

Exner-Pirot said that it would be hard to believe the Canadian federal government would finance an American company and its American infrastructure.

Bill Salvin, a spokesman for Bridger Pipeline, said Canadian government funding does not apply to the American side of the pipeline expansion because it is a U.S.-based project. He said the private company does not release the financial details of its projects.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2026.

— With files from Timon Johnson

Marissa Birnie, The Canadian Press