Real estate association forecasts B.C. home sales to slide 4.5 per cent this year

VANCOUVER — The B.C. Real Estate Association expects home sales in the province to continue to slide this year, warning of “mounting headwinds” for the market, while hoping for a pick-up in both prices and sales in 2027.

The association says in its fourth-quarter forecast that sales are expected to fall 4.5 per cent this year from 2025 levels, to just over 67,000 units sold.

Association chief economist Brendon Ogmundson says in a statement that prospective buyers this year had several reasons to hesitate, including an oil-price shock, trade tensions with the United States, slower immigration and rising interest rates.

The forecast says active listings in B.C. are at their highest levels since 2015, and new-home inventory is also elevated.

It predicts that the supply pressure will push the average home price down 1.2 per cent to just over $941,000.

The forecast calls for a “modest recovery” in 2027 with sales projected to increase 7.2 per cent, but Ogmundson says that’s in anticipation of a decline in the impacts of new U.S. tariffs and reductions in fixed mortgage rates.

“Hopefully, a calming of these headwinds next year should stimulate housing activity, which, paired with flattening inventories, is expected to drive price growth of 2.4 per cent in 2027, bringing the provincial average price to $964,200,” the forecast says, adding it is anticipating a “long-awaited rebound” in the Lower Mainland market.

Greater Vancouver home sales are projected to reach 23,000 units this year, down 3 per cent from the year before, while the Fraser Valley is forecast to see a 4.4 per cent decrease to 11,000 units.

The largest decline is expected in the Chilliwack area of the Lower Mainland, with unit sales falling from 2,300 last year to 1,900 this year, an 18-per-cent decrease.

“Following a 2025 that saw the weakest year of sales in over a decade, faint signs of a 2026 recovery were thwarted by a resurgent oil price shock and further escalation in Canada’s trade war with the United States,” the forecast says.

“With population growth expected to remain subdued through 2027, B.C. faces limited capacity to grow at trend levels.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 10, 2026.

The Canadian Press