Democrats’ blue tsunami could be reversing travel turnoff of Canada-U.S. trade war

MONTREAL — The Democrats’ sweeping midterm victory is poised to fan a trend of rising Canadian visitor volumes to the United States, counteracting the effect of the recent trade war flare-up, travel experts say.

Canadian return trips from America rose three per cent in October compared with the same period last year, the seventh-straight month of growth, according to preliminary figures from Statistics Canada.

However, the increase marked a smaller uptick than the levels seen through much of the summer and into September.

At Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, new leisure bookings — distinct from trips taken — fell 26 per cent year-over-year last month in response to a fresh round of tariffs and taunts by U.S. President Donald Trump weeks earlier.

“It really just shows you how fragile cross-border travel is, specifically from the leisure market,” said Amra Durakovic, a spokesperson for the travel agency.

Over the past week though, Flight Centre has seen signs of a return to the Canada-U.S. tourism rebound in the wake of the Democrats’ electoral success on Nov. 3, widely viewed as a rebuke to White House policies.

“We are hearing a degree of cautious optimism from some travellers who were reluctant to return,” Durakovic said.

“One customer, he booked a Mississippi River cruise, and they did that instead of exploring another European holiday,” she said. “Tuesday’s election, that influenced their decision. They said that they definitely feel a lot more comfortable travelling to the U.S. now.”

For now, Canadian visitor volumes remain far below levels from 2024 — 27 per cent below in October — as the trade war drags on and Canadians opt for other destinations.

Nonetheless, the torrent of votes for Democratic candidates from Kansas to the Carolinas set off flickers of a possible revival in stateside travel, or perhaps signs of what a Democratic triumph in 2028 could herald for tourism.

“Pickup to the U.S. has happened in the last week — people that weren’t going to go,” said Marty Firestone, noting an abrupt rise in business at the insurance firm he heads, Travel Secure Inc.

“There was a real bad feeling last year: ‘I’m not going there. That man doesn’t want us. He calls us the 51st state,’” Firestone said, describing the attitude of many Canadians. “With the Democratic blue tsunami, as they call it, I think that Canadians are somewhat feeling a little more relieved about going back to the U.S.”

Others say it’s too early to gauge whether the midterms revamped interest in cross-border trips.

“We need at least a month,” said Richard Vanderlubbe, who heads Hamilton-based travel agency Tripcentral.ca.

Even if an upward shift is underway, he suspects it’s a minor one, with Trump set to remain in the Oval Office for two more years.

“I don’t feel like there’s a sea change. It’s not like the phones lit up on Wednesday morning with emails flying and, ‘Hey, OK, it’s good to go to the States now.’”

The ill feeling is strong enough that some travel agencies avoid promoting American packages altogether.

“We just don’t know which of our customers is going to be wildly offended by any kind of marketing in the United States … so we just don’t do it,” Vanderlubbe said.

“To market the U.S. is like dynamite.”

Flight volumes from Canada to Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California are down 17 per cent in total this quarter versus the final three months of 2024, according to aviation data firm Cirium. Overall Canada-U.S. flight volumes decreased only 10 per cent, revealing the bigger drop in demand for sun-splashed leisure hot spots.

Corporate travel continues to hum along, Durakovic said, with virtually no drop in Flight Centre bookings over the past couple of years.

“It’s still business as usual. You can’t exactly stop travelling to the U.S. because of politics,” she said.

The broader Canadian aversion to travelling south of the border combined with the shutdown of Cuban resorts amid a fuel shortage caused by an American oil blockade has pushed sun seekers farther afield.

Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica have surged in popularity, travel agents said. Portugal and Spain have also enjoyed a recent boost in Canadian visitors.

“Air Transat flights to Malaga are full,” said Sal Lato, who owns the Voyages Marlin travel agency franchise. Meanwhile, the leisure airline has cut the 36 flights a week it operated between Canada and Florida in late 2024 down to zero.

Not all winter escapees can simply point their finger at a fresh spot on the map and jet off for a getaway, extended or otherwise.

“There are still deep ties to many U.S. snowbird destinations,” said Stephen Fine, founder of Snowbird Advisor Insurance.

“They have friends who’ve been going there for years and they want to be able to spend their winters with that community,” he said of many Canadians.

“A lot of them own properties there. People want to drive down to their destination or have their vehicles with them for the winter,” he noted. For them, America may be the only option.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2026.

Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press