Inflation expected to jump in March as Iran oil shock enters price data

OTTAWA — Statistics Canada will reveal the early impacts of the Iran war’s oil price shock on inflation when the agency reports its consumer price index for March on Monday.

The price of oil has surged in recent weeks after Iran responded to attacks by the United States and Israel by shuttering the Strait of Hormuz where a fifth of the world’s fuel normally transits.

RBC senior economist Claire Fan says the bank expects rising prices at the pumps will push the headline inflation rate to 2.5 per cent in March, up from 1.8 per cent in February.

She says that jump would be even higher, but the removal last year of the consumer carbon price is still taking some steam out of the annual inflation comparisons.

Fan says she expects the headline inflation rate will top three per cent in April when the end of the carbon tax drops out of the inflation calculation.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said last month he’s also expecting a near-term jump in inflation, but suggested the central bank would look through the initial price shock from the Iran war as monetary policymakers gear up for their interest rate announcement on April 29.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 17, 2026.

Craig Lord, The Canadian Press