Carney points to Brexit, warns Alberta separation push could be ‘dangerous bluff’

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday the Alberta referendum on separation could be a “dangerous bluff,” while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith cautioned it’s a decision for Albertans to make, not the federal government.

Carney, who was the governor of the Bank of England during and immediately after the Brexit referendum campaign, warned that people in the United Kingdom are still trying to undo the damage caused by that decision a decade later.

“In these separation issues, it is often advanced that, ‘Vote for this and it’s a free option. Vote for this and we will strengthen our hand in a future negotiation.’ That is a very dangerous bluff,” Carney told a news conference in Ottawa on Monday.

Smith said last week her government will pose a question in the referendum planned for October asking Albertans if they think the province should remain part of Canada or should begin the legal process for a separation referendum.

Smith said in a televised address that not asking the question in a referendum would amount to “muzzling the voices of hundreds of thousands of Albertans,” something she said would be “unjustifiable” in a democracy.

A petition to trigger a referendum on Alberta separation was thrown out earlier this month by a judge, who cited the provincial government’s failure to consult Indigenous communities on the effect separation would have on their treaty rights. The Alberta government is appealing that ruling.

Smith said last week that waiting for the court to complete that appeal process would prolong a “very emotional and important debate.”

Speaking to reporters Monday, Smith said she has been trying to address the legitimate grievances Albertans have with Ottawa and she believes she’s making progress with Carney.

“We don’t agree on everything but I found that he entered into our discussions in a spirit of collaboration and co-operation. He often talks about co-operative federalism. He has talked about how we need to address these legitimate grievances, and I think that’s the right tone for him to take, and I hope that he continues to do that,” said Smith.

She said her province’s citizen initiative law gives Albertans the option to debate and vote on the issue.

“I’m just trying to get a gauge of where Albertans are at. I think that’s respectful,” she said.

The Bloc Québécois went to bat for Albertans’ right to a referendum on Monday, accusing the federal government of overstepping the right of provinces to poll their citizens.

“When a provincial or Quebec government polls its people, it’s up to the government of Quebec, or of that province, to determine the question, and for those citizens to answer it,” Bloc House leader Christine Normandin said in French during question period in the House of Commons.

“Ottawa has nothing to do with that. If Ottawa interferes, it’s simply because it believes it is superior to everyone else. So either Ottawa respects the democratic process or it meddles and confirms that it despises the people.”

Alberta Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner echoed Smith’s comments before question period Monday. She said Carney and the federal government “need some humility” when talking about the Alberta referendum.

“He has no right to wag his finger. That makes it worse and he shouldn’t be doing what he did this morning,” Rempel Garner said.

“Arguably he screwed up on Brexit. He came out as part of ‘Project Fear’ and it backfired. I would strongly caution him from doing that again and the tone that he gave this morning was not responsible in that regard.”

“Project Fear” was a term used to describe pro-European Union campaigners during the 2016 Brexit referendum who warned that economic chaos would follow a vote to take the U.K. out of the EU. Multiple studies have suggested the U.K saw a significant drop in GDP in the last decade, largely driven by a substantial decline in business investment. There were corresponding impacts on employment and productivity.

Carney said the government is reviewing the proposed referendum question to ensure it complies with the Clarity Act, the federal secession law which passed after the 1995 Quebec referendum.

The prime minister said he plans to campaign for national unity and to show that co-operative federalism can work.

He pointed to a deal he signed with Smith earlier this month which commits the two levels of government to working toward building a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast, so long as industrial carbon price targets are met and carbon capture projects move ahead.

Rempel Garner said Carney needs to show “real action” by stating when construction on a new pipeline will begin.

When asked if he tried to dissuade Smith from posing a separation question during those pipeline talks, Carney did not answer directly.

“The premier doesn’t always take my advice,” he said.

The prime minister said a referendum campaign isn’t helpful when the province is trying to woo investors for a pipeline. He pointed out that voters did not give Smith’s government a mandate to take this step.

“Is it the democratic will of Albertans? Did they vote for this in the last provincial election? No, they didn’t. It wasn’t on the ballot paper, it wasn’t in the mandates or platforms of the governing party and the Official Opposition,” Carney said. “It is what it is.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who represents an Alberta riding, said last week that he and the rest of his caucus will campaign for the province to remain in Canada.

When asked Monday if he’s had conversations with MPs from other parties about engaging in a cross-partisan push for unity, Calgary Liberal MP Corey Hogan told a news conference in Ottawa there is no “partisan bend to this.”

“We are all pro-Canada,” he said. “Certainly we’ve had many conversations about how to best approach that. There are always going to be disagreements in terms of tactics along the way between people, but fundamentally we’re all on the same side. We’re on the side of Canada.”

Emergency Management Minister Eleanor Olszewski, who represents an Edmonton riding, said separation is “unthinkable for most of us.”

“I’m just focused on making sure that we have the most decisive result in terms of Albertans that say they want to stand up for this country, they want to remain in this country,” Olszewski said.

“I’m going to be working so hard between now and Oct. 19 to make sure that people in Alberta understand how hard the federal government is working to make sure Alberta voices are heard in government.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on May 25, 2026.

David Baxter and Nick Murray, The Canadian Press