Money woes, war and Trump — what’s motivating U.S. voters ahead of the midterms

U.S. President Donald Trump has been telling supporters to vote like he’s on the midterm ballot next Tuesday — but voters are heading to the polls looking for politicians ready to tackle the affordability crisis.

Trump returned to the White House with a massive agenda to realign global trade and a promise to Americans that his tariff policies would reinvigorate domestic manufacturing and reduce the cost of living.

The reality of his second presidency is very different.

Republicans are fighting to hold a slim majority in Congress amid a political backdrop of soaring energy prices, persistent inflation and business uncertainty caused by Trump’s war on Iran and his tariffs.

The biggest issue for voters in nearly every poll is the economy, said Christopher Sands, director of Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Canadian Studies.

“People think about the economy all the time,” he said. “It’s one of their most important priorities.”

About eight in 10 registered voters, including a large majority of Republicans and Democrats, believe lowering the cost of living should be one of the highest priorities for government, according to a survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research earlier this month.

Seven in 10 want Congress to prioritize ending the war in Iran.

Many of the voters who brought Trump back to Washington to deal with affordability were willing to give the president a grace period on his economic policies, including his plan to hit the world with tariffs.

Halfway through his second term, however, independents, bellwether voters and even some Republicans have lost patience.

Sands said Trump is skilled at getting national attention through his near-nightly rallies and unrelenting posts on social media. That could prove problematic for Republicans facing voter pushback over the president’s inability to deliver a positive message on the cost of living.

Many Republican candidates have been distancing themselves from Trump and his policies, even as the president pushes to make himself the face of the Republican campaign.

An October New York Times/Siena College poll saw Trump’s approval rating sink to 36 per cent. Most respondents gave Trump low numbers on his handling of economic issues.

Trump’s own comments and actions are making it difficult for Republicans to control the message. He has called affordability a “hoax” and insists the United States has entered an economic “golden age.” He boasts about the ballroom and helipad he’s building at the White House while dismissing voters’ concerns about the cost of diesel and gas.

Trump has continued to lob insults at Canada since trade negotiations fell apart in August. He has claimed he holds all the cards in trade talks and that the Canadian government is “willing to give” the U.S. “anything” to secure a deal.

Experts have said that while the tensions between Ottawa and Washington are not necessarily on American voters’ radar nationally, the impacts of the trade war are being felt in key Senate races in Maine and Michigan.

“I think it’s as simple as Trump has had his chance, he’s instituted his policies and we’re not seeing the change at the grocery store register every week,” said Marc Trussler, director of data science for the University of Pennsylvania’s program on opinion research and election studies.

Trussler, who is Canadian, said one of the big shifts in polling since Trump’s 2024 election is over which party voters trust more to handle the economy.

While Republicans were strongly favoured on pocketbook issues before the presidential election, recent polls have seen large shifts toward Democrats, particularly among independents, young people and Hispanic voters.

Trump made historic gains in 2024 with Hispanic and Black male voters and with younger voters. Trussler said polling shows a lot of them are now moving back to Democrats.

Much of that movement is linked to Trump’s handling of the economy — but that’s not the only factor. Voters are also angered by the administration’s controversial handling of immigration and its push for data centres. Some polls also found that preserving democracy is a priority for Americans casting ballots next week.

Trump’s unique skill has always been his ability to draw out low-propensity voters — but those are the ones least likely to turn out for midterm elections when the president is not on the ballot.

Those voters have other reasons to stay home. Many are disappointed by the Trump administration’s mishandling of the release of files related to the notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and Trump’s broken promise to keep the United States out of foreign wars.

Democrats are trying to capitalize on Trump’s low approval ratings while making the case that their candidates are leading the charge on affordability.

A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll issued earlier this week found 44 per cent of likely voters say their vote for Congress is mostly a vote against Trump. Only 35 per cent say Trump isn’t a factor.

It’s still not possible to predict whether Democrats will secure full control of Congress.

Polling shows Democrats are close to taking the House, where a net gain of three seats would give them a narrow majority, but the Senate looks to be a more difficult flip.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 30, 2026.

— With files from The Associated Press

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press